Personal finance

We Study Billionaires: The Billionaire’s Peak Performance Playbook

It’s no surprise that many investors can fare well by following in the footsteps of the best investors out there—the billionaires inking huge deals and moving the market.

But those billionaire investors don’t do it alone. They have a number of personnel at their disposal to get the job done. One such person is a coach, who can help them get in the zone, just as an athletic coach might do with a star football player.

Billionaire coach and neurophysiologist Louisa Nicola joined the We Study Billionaires podcast. She spoke about how the best investors work to achieve their peak performance.

Some of the key takeaways are simple. Starting with a good night’s rest allows one to get refreshed and be at their best in any endeavor. In the fast-moving world of financial markets, starting out tired can put even the best investor starting the day behind the eight ball.

Other measures to keep the body healthy also play to mental health. That can be critical when making fast-paced decisions amid a rapidly-changing scenario, whether in the markets or on the field.

That’s why the world’s top athletes and investors also end up thinking alike, by getting into a consistent flow. This appeals to the brain’s sense of routine. Getting into a state of flow can help ensure strong and consistent performance.

The full episode of the podcast can be heard here.

Economy

The Compound and Friends: Pulling Out

In the latest Compound and Friends podcast, the roundtable discusses a number of macroeconomic issues. The biggest issues pertain to the sanctions facing Russia right now.

The rise of NATO and its expansion Eastward since the collapse of the Soviet Union may have been a precipitating factor for Russia’s invasion. Creating a way to guarantee the safety of Eastern European countries without the formality of a NATO membership may be necessary. Why? To deter future transgressions.

Meanwhile, the economic sanctions against Russia are leading to higher energy prices globally. And energy reserves in Western European countries are dwindling. On the plus side, it is the tail end of the winter season. It will take months to adapt to the changing energy market. But those reserves will need to be rebuilt before the next winter.

The sanctions against Russia appear to pack some teeth. That’s thanks to the country’s gradual shift away from US dollar assets over the years. As a result, Russia is well prepared to deal with the consequences of being kicked out of the global financial system.

The ruble has fallen tremendously in international markets. But domestically, President Putin has seen his popularity soar. And the country is on the verge of having a currency backed by its physical resources. However, Russia is now asking for hard metals as a means of payment for its energy reserves, which puts it on solid footing going forward.

The full podcast, running about 1:26:30, can be heard here.

Economy

Invest Like the Best: Marko Papic – a Multi-Polar World

Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, leads the firm’s research on macroeconomics and markets. Marko has spent his career at the intersection of finance and geopolitics.

Along with Russia and Ukraine, it’s clear that the multi-decade trend of increased globalization is at an end. This fragmentation could be regional, as seen with a potential alignment between Russia and China. This new partnership could prove stronger than in the days of the Soviet Union.

Meanwhile events have caused the US and EU to set aside many of their differences in the interest of global unity. That’s true even as economic sanctions could impact Western economies over the long term. Europe has to source its energy needs from more expensive sources. And the US dollar could potentially lose its dominance.

Meanwhile, high energy prices are also stalling out the green energy themes. A revolution was supposed to create new, high-paying jobs, and end dependence on foreign energy. The fact of the matter is, such a transition will take time to play out. And fossil fuels will likely never go away.

The surge in energy and other commodity prices also makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to perform its job of raising interest rates to combat inflation. Any move may be too little, too late, and ineffective against rising prices due to higher energy costs.

The full episode, running about 1:09:30, can be heard here.

Cryptocurrencies

What Bitcoin Did: The End of the Dollar Hegemony with Nic Carter

Nic Carter, a Partner at Castle Island Ventures and co-founder and Chairman of Coin Metrics, discusses a number of monetary issues toay. That includes the seizure of Russian Central Bank assets by the G7, and the potential demise of US hegemony. It also includes the growth of a multi-reserve currency world.

Russia has now turned to gold, the ruble, and even Bitcoin for international trade amid Western sanctions. As a result, the decline of the US dollar in global trade is starting to mirror the passing of past empires.

Investors should be cautious about the dollar remaining first among equal in the world of fiat currencies. History shows no fixed dates for the end of a currency regime. Instead, declines face prolonged unwinding. We could be in the early stages of one such unwinding today.

Already, the role of the US dollar has been eroded over the past few decades as economic sanctions have been increasingly deployed as a coercive tool of power. And as other nations have started engaging in bilateral trade agreements.

Nevertheless, the G7 freezing Russian access to its foreign assets has accelerated the pace of countries shifting out of the Western banking system. As a result, the US dollar will no longer act as a store of value across the world. Again, that could end up harming the US more than Russia. That’s even without the two countries getting into a shooting war.

The full episode, running 1:15:47, can be heard here.

Value Investing

Wall Street Silver Official Podcast: Silver Supply Extremely Tight, Tyler Wall, CEO of SD Bullion

Physical precious metals have been in strong demand over the past month following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not only have prices risen, but so has the premium that investors are paying to acquire physical gold and silver.

On the Wall Street Silver Official Podcast, Tyler Wall, CEO of SD Bullion, came on to provide a behind-the-scenes view of the silver market. He discusses why investors may not be able to find products in their local coin store anytime soon.

Demand has soared significantly, and coin stores placing orders may not be able to have all their orders fulfilled. That can lead to shortages just as demand has started to soar.

With low allocation from mints and miners, even governments are starting to shut down production of coinage. That includes US American Eagle coins, Canadian Maple Leafs, and other popular silver products.

Gold is seeing the same pressure as well, especially as its price shot up over $2,000 per ounce only to come back down as markets have trended higher one month into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Should investors expect relief anytime soon? Probably not, given the latest talks about Western nations turning away from precious metals sourced from Russia.

Plus, central bank and banker demand for precious metals has shot up in recent weeks as well. That means traders interested in physical silver could be getting set up to benefit from a possible squeeze in the coming months.

The full episode, running 14:36, can be heard here.

Stock market strategies

GreenWood Investors Q4 2021 Letter

In a piece called The Acceleration of Time, hedge fund GreenWood Investors looks at the issues facing markets at the end of the year, and into the start of 2022.

The fund first noted that the worldwide decline in markets since November led to a number of growth stocks losing more than half their value. At one point, even more than 50 percent of NASDAQ-listed stocks had been cut in half (or worse).

Overall, the fund reported a poor quarter, but a solid year. And years matter more than quarters when investing. The fund has noted that the past few years have most mimicked the period from the first World War to the Spanish Flu, to the Roaring 20s thanks to generous stimulus programs.

While the recent pullback may not be the start of a new Great Depression, it does indicate that high volatility and rapidly-changing trader attitudes are here to stay.

The fund also notes that large, mega-cap tech companies are starting to turn on each other as they relentlessly focus on their own growth at any cost. One such example is Apple (AAPL), which made privacy changes that adversely impacted Meta Platforms (FB) to its own benefit. Further moves in that direction could harm investors in unexpected ways.

The letter concludes with the challenges of looking at both the short-term and the long-term, an issue that every investor or trader has to contend with, whether they like it or not. Staying humble and looking carefully ahead can mitigate much financial pain.

Those interested in reading the full 8-page letter can do so here.

Stock market

How to Invest Like George Soros

George Soros is a trading legend. And, he is an investment legend because he achieved amazing results.

Over more than 40 years, George Soros delivered an average annual return of about 20% to the investors in his hedge fund. At that rate of return, a $10,000 investment when the fund was started in 1969 would have grown to more than $20 million when Soros closed the fund in 2011.

George Soros

Source: Harald Dettenborn Wikimedia Commons

The most famous story of Soros’ success might be the day that he broke the Bank of England and reaped a one day profit of more than $1 billion. Trades like that have led many individual investors to believe that Soros traded markets they cannot or choose not to access.

However, Soros started his career as a stock market analyst and wrote about his stock market investments in his 1987 book The Alchemy of Finance. In the book, he noted that his stock selection was responsible for most of the returns in his hedge fund.

A Roadmap To Success

The book is a kind of diary of the fund’s progress over a period of about a year. During that time, the value of the fund more than doubled.

In addition to recording his thoughts on the market, Soros shared details of his investment philosophy in The Alchemy of Finance. He wrote, “Most of what I know is in the book…I have not kept anything deliberately hidden.”  This makes the book a must read for serious investors.

Among his important insights into investing is the idea that the thought processes of investors are often just as important to the movements of economies and markets as more “objective” factors such as interest rates and measures of economic growth.

This led him to the conclusion, according to The Telegraph, Soros believes that “anyone who tries to predict the markets by assuming that they behave rationally is doomed to failure.

He said his concepts “provided me with a new way of looking at financial markets, a better way than the prevailing theory. This gave me an edge, first as a securities analyst and then as a hedge fund manager.”

This indicates that sentiment indicators can be as important to understand as fundamentals. “Many investors make a distinction between market sentiment and business “fundamentals”, implying that anyone who can ignore the former and concentrate on the latter is likely to make better returns.

But Soros pointed out that there were two problems with this attitude. First, anyone’s knowledge of the “fundamentals” of today’s highly complex markets is bound to be incomplete. But, Soros realized that investor sentiment didn’t affect just share prices, it could actually change economic fundamentals.”

Economics Confirms the Theory

Economists label this idea the wealth effect, which is the concept that change in spending that accompanies a change in perceived wealth. Usually the wealth effect is positive: spending changes in the same direction as perceived wealth. The wealth effect can be significant and is seen around the world.

wealth effect

Source: Federal Reserve

From Soros’ perspective, this means that “Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend. A boom-bust process is set in motion when a trend and a misconception positively reinforce each other.”

He said the simplest example was a property boom. Here, the trend is the availability of cheap credit; the misconception is that property is worth more for other reasons and not just because more people are able to buy. That is confirmed by the Fed data shown above.

News Can Create Opportunities

Although his theory is important, Soros will always be best known for his bet against the Bank of England in 1992 in the run-up to Britain’s eviction from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, the precursor of the euro. This was his billion dollar day.

The Exchange Rate Mechanism was meant to keep European Union (EU) currencies in rough alignment until the euro was introduced. This meant that when, for example, the French franc rose against the dollar, the Bank of England tried to ensure that the pound did too.

Soros believed that this was an unstable situation and he believed that based on the fundamentals the pound was becoming overvalued. That hurt British exporter and was unsustainable in the long run as political pressure would mount along with exporters’ pain.

Another problem was that interest rates needed to be increased to maintain the artificially inflated value of the pound. That slow hurt the economy and added political pressure to the central bank and other policy makers.

Soros understood that at some point the pain would be too much for the government and Bank of England would be forced to devalue the pound. This insight led him to take a short position in the pound that would benefit from the decline when it occurred.

On a day that would become known as “Black Wednesday,” Soros’ bet paid off. The Bank of England cut interest rates, the value of the pound fell sharply and Soros collected his profit.

British Pound weekly chart

Since that time, he has made other big bets in currency markets and captured large gains in trades on the Japanese yen and in other markets.

This is, of course, different from buy and hold investing. Soros looks for quick gains and the chance to find additional quick gains. He takes profits and prepares for the next trade rather than holding to achieve a long term gain for tax reasons or other purposes.

Individuals could apply this philosophy to the stock market. They know that large moves can follow earnings announcements and identifying extremes in sentiment could provide opportunities to benefit from reactions after earnings are released.

Exchange traded funds also allow individuals to access currency markets and commodities without accepting the risks of futures contracts. That could make it possible to benefit from moves in oil or gold as Soros has in the past.

In fact, Soros did use the SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE:GLD) for a recent trade in that market. The key is to look for sentiment and then identify the trade. That could help investors enjoy profits like Soros.

His recent holdings indicate a bearish outlook for the broad stock market but a favorable view of broadcasters.

recent holdings chart

Source: WhaleWisdom.com

Individuals could consider put options. Like Soros, or they could consider specific stocks or sectors he finds attractive. History does say that Soros is likely to be profitable in the long run.

Stock market

A 5G Investment Hidden in Plain Sight

Fifth generation, or 5G, wireless systems are set to change the way cell phones connect to the world. The truth is that many investors will attempt to benefit from 5G by finding the best technology providers.

5g is a step in an evolutionary process that began decades ago.

wireless communication timeline

Source: REIT.com

5G is expected to help facilitate the increasing proliferation of the “internet of things” (IoT) and more advanced machine-to-machine technologies. It will bring an exponential increase in data speeds that will change how people interact with the internet.

For example, download time for an HD movie could go from an hour to a few seconds. 5G can also power up remote surgery, and some say truly autonomous vehicles aren’t possible without it.

They may overlook an income strategy that will benefit from 5G. The National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT) explains, “as with previous “Gs,” tower and data center REITs will play a vital role globally in enabling this new generation of technology to get to the market efficiently.”

5G is a significant evolution from wireless capabilities that are currently available. It isn’t a single technological innovation, but rather a series of advances in communication. These changes mean that speeds could be 10 times faster than the speeds attained with 4G systems.

That means it will be possible to connect everything to everything.

6G details

Source: REIT.com

The problem for technology investors is that “the benefits of 5G,” Dan Schlanger, senior vice president and CFO at Crown Castle International Corp. (NYSE: CCI) notes, “are still not 100 percent clear. However, he expects to see developers come in and utilize the technology in ways that have never been dreamed before—much like Uber and Waze have done with 4G.

One thing that is certain is that cellular providers will need more towers. CCI has prepared for the rollout of 5G for close to a decade, beginning with owning 4,000 towers and expanding into 60,000 small cells, with 60,000 miles of metro fiber throughout the top metro markets in the United States.

CCI weekly chart

“We are very well positioned for what 5G will become,” Schlanger says. “The way we define it is [as] really ubiquitous, high-speed, low-latency coverage to allow people to access their data wherever they are and however they want it.”

Jim Poole, vice president of business development at Equinix, Inc. (Nasdaq: EQIX), says this is where the data center REITs come into the picture.

EQIX weekly chart“We deliver interconnection to companies, which is the private data exchange between businesses,” Poole says. “It is the fastest, most secure, lowest-latency connectivity there is, and will be a critical part of the 5G revolution.”

Equinix’s global interconnection platform allows companies to access their clouds, networks, data, and partners directly, so they can connect to whatever they need, wherever they need it, he adds.

Evan Serton, senior vice president and portfolio specialist at Cohen & Steers, says one should consider the wireless network as a toll road: 5G will have significantly larger lanes for wireless traffic and dramatically higher speed limits than the current 4G technology.

New 5G capabilities can be used by service providers to extend their reach for their enterprise mobile customers. In turn, enterprises can harness wireless-based technologies such as the IoT to provide new services to mobile users. 

This technology comes with technology challenges as Forbes explained,

“5G brings a suite of new technologies, and among the most popular contenders are small cells, millimeter waves, massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO), beamforming and full duplex.

Essentially small cells are miniature cellphone towers that can be placed in inconspicuous places such as light poles and the roofs of buildings. They don’t require as much power as full-sized towers, and perform better when clustered together.

For investors, Connected Real Estate’s Rich Berliner says, “Delivery of 5G service will require wireless carriers to invest in more cell towers, as well as in small cell and fiber networks to broadcast 5G signals into specific areas. Implementation of 5G should be a massive home run for cell tower REITs and is expected to buoy revenue growth for the better part of the next decade. Companies with a specific focus on small cells may benefit the most.”

American Tower told Bloomberg “(that) ‘single tenant’ towers have gross margins of 40% from rentals… two tenants have 74% margins…three tenants have 83% margins.

As with anything, tower REITs will need to diversify and grow in any areas they can, possibly on an international scale. American Tower is looking into that aspect, as Crown Castle International is focusing on building up on U.S. soil, before 5G comes to fruition.”

Clients implementing public wireless internet connections may prefer 5G, with speed gains, cost reductions and ease of deployment—leaving behind big fiber-optic cable providers such as Uniti Group (UNIT) and Zayo Group Holdings (ZAYO).”

Forbes recommends considering American Tower (NYSE: AMT), “which was founded in 1995, is the fastest-growing player in telecommunications infrastructure. Its global portfolio includes more than 160,000 tower sites (40,000 U.S.) in various stages of wireless network deployment.

AMT weekly chart

The $61 billion market cap company had first quarter 2018 consolidated adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of $807 million, up 11.9% from first quarter 2017. American Tower has paid and increased dividends each quarter since 2012, has a current yield of 2.2% and a 43% payout ratio.

Recently, AMT tried to prevent contractors from constructing new towers within a half mile of existing tower sites, FierceWireless’ Mike Dano reports, but suspended the effort after opposition from industry players including AT&T and Verizon.

Dano says it’s due “to increasing competition in the cell tower industry…hoping to cash in on the wireless industry’s collective move to 5G…and increased network densification.”

CCI is another possible investment in the sector as is Landmark Infrastructure Partners LP (Nasdaq: LMRK), which has a current yield of about 9% and leases assets to companies in wireless communication (70% of revenue), outdoor advertising (20%), and renewable power generation. This could provide diversification along with income.

5G will change many things but the technology will create winners and losers. Income investors may want to consider the companies that provide the towers to benefit from the technology while waiting for the winners to become clear.

Passive Income

This Asset Class Could Provide Double Digit Passive Income

Every saver has come to understand the problem of low interest rates. Interest rates available on safe investments could be lower than the rate of inflation. This leads to a loss in buying power. This also leads many investors to chase yields by accepting more risk.

There is a tradeoff between risk and reward. Higher rewards will invariably carry more risks than investment options with less risk. But, there are ways to reduce risk.

Hard Money Lending Could Balance Risks With Rewards

Hard money loans are a specific type of real estate loan. These loans are always backed by assets, which means that the property serves as sole collateral for the loan. In many underwriting processes, the value of the property will be the most important factor in approving the loan.

In hard money lending, a lender can overlook some of the concerns with a borrower’s credit history or the state of the local real estate market because they have a process in place to take control of the property if that proves to be necessary.

Although these are real estate loans, they are not like mortgages. The goal of a hard money lender is to provide access to short term capital. The focus on the short term reduces risk since real estate trends are fairly steady in the short run.

These loans also carry relatively high interest rates. This is possible because the borrower is frequently focused on a highly leveraged deal and is targeting large returns. The interest paid on a hard money loan is just one small cost of the transaction.

Although the loan would be just one part of the transaction, it is possible that without the loan there would not be any type of transaction. That makes the loan worth a great deal to the borrow.

Rather than address the theory of the process, an example could be the best way to explain this type of investment.

An Example of the Rewards and Risks of Hard Money Lending

Consider an individual with above average home maintenance skills. The individual might have worked with a builder in the past but been laid off in the slowdown of the housing cycle.

This individual is shopping for a home that has been foreclosed. The home may have been worth $220,000 when the bank foreclosed. But, after several months, the bank is willing to accept an offer of $140,000.

Please remember that we are not addressing the buying or selling of real estate and are not suggesting that this type of deal is available on any particular property. We are using numbers to demonstrate the potential value of hard money lending.

This home has sat vacant and in need of some repairs. It could also use upgrades including new paint and a finished basement. The investor is capable of completing the work without the need to hire a contractor at a cost of $25,000. The home should be ready for resale in three months.

When the work is completed, the home should sell for $250,000. But, the investor has only $20,000 and banks will not lend on the property because it is not going to be owner occupied.

A local hard money lender is able to provide a loan that funds the purchase of the bank and the repairs. The total cost would be $165,000 ($140,000 to buy the home and $25,000 for repairs). The lender provides $145,000 and the buyer invests $20,000.

This loan would be for one year. The borrower would pay a 2% funding fee ($2,900) and 10% interest ($14,500). The lender receives a first mortgage on the loan which could be sold, as is, for $220,000. Paperwork is completed by local title companies.

This means the lender is protected unless the home value falls below $145,000, a 35% decline which is only seen in market crashes. The borrower is willing to pay the high rate because they stand to make much more when the work is done.

In this example, the borrower, the lender and the individual investors who fund the loans are able to profit.

Trading Hard Money Lenders

Business Development companies (BDCs) may be either be private or public finance companies that make hard money loans. These private hard money lenders typically operate within a single state and usually are focused on a specific industry, the most common of which is mortgage lending.

Borrowers typically use hard money loans when it is important to get a loan origination quickly, or when they can’t, or won’t, provide supporting documentation to obtain a lower-cost loan. These borrowers also often have ongoing relationships with BDCs, so that they can obtain fast financing when needed.

A BDC or hard money lender can typically move a loan request through to closing, before a bank-originated loan has even completed its first step of financing, or processing.

The increased interest-carrying costs are simply the cost of business for these borrowers, who find it is worth it to secure a rapid loan closing.

The publicly traded BDCs, with loan portfolios largely collateralized by real estate or other hard assets, include Hercules Capital (NYSE: HTGC) with a yield of 9.5%.

HTGC daily chart

Monroe Capital (Nasdaq: MRCC) offers a yield of about 11.4%.

MRCC daily chart

Garrison Capital (Nasdaq: GARS) provided a yield of more than 12.5% at the recent price.

GARS daily chart

Local Lenders Are in This Business

In almost every local community, there are individuals funding real estate purchases like this. The fix and flip model of real estate investing has existed for decades and will continue to serve an important role in the market. That means financing opportunities will continue to be available.

Investors like these deals because interest rates for hard money loans are typically 9.75% to 15% and origination fees can be 2% to 3%.

Low LTV rates provide security to the lender. Hard money LTV (loan-to-value) rates are typically 50% to 65%, but they can be based on the purchase price or the after-repairs appraisal value, usually whichever is higher, rather than being forced to go with the lower of the two as bank lenders are.

Borrowers typically put some money down, another factor that reduces the risk of the lender since they then face a real loss if they fail to achieve their goals.

Borrowers like these deals because the underwriting process is considerably faster than a typical mortgage. The costs are also lower than a typical mortgage.

Most hard money loans have interest-only payments during the term of the loan with the principal due at the end of the loan, but in some situations, it is possible to have money to cover the monthly interest payments included in the original loan amount.

These are short-term loans, often used to bridge between other financing options, so the typical term is between six months and two years.

Because hard money lending is an integral part of the real estate market, lenders and borrowers tend to know each other in local real estate markets. This means it is relatively easy for new investors to put cash to work in these markets.

It is possible for a new investor to find deals on their own and lend directly to real estate buyers. Or, it is almost always possible to find existing lenders and work with them to fund individual projects. Some large lenders also provide pooled investments with high yields.

Perhaps the best way to get started is to complete a web search for lenders in your area and contact them to begin earning passive income.

Stock market strategies

An Active Strategy For Inactive Traders

Many traders would like to trade more actively but they may lack the time. There are some strategies that require just a few minutes a week to trade, including this one that trades based on broad market trends.

Traders might often focus on stocks because they know individual stocks can make volatile moves. The same is true for the market in general and for sectors and industries. In general, sectors are broad groups and industries are more specific collections of companies.

As an example, Walmart is in the food and staples industry and in the hypermarkets and super center industry according to some classifications. Other classifications are possible, depending on the data provider.

That fact highlights an important point. When building a sector strategy, it is not necessary to focus on precise definitions. It is important to find a data source and to use that data source consistently and with discipline.

Defining Sector Rotation Strategies

Sector rotation strategies are based on the idea that traders rotate from one group. Some theories contend this is a natural part of the business cycle and the sector with the strongest performance is tied to where the economy is in the business cycle.

The business cycle is the expansion and contraction of the economy. It is measured with data like the GDP report and the employment report and other economic data series offer insights into where we are in the cycle.

But, the economic cycle is impossible to measure in real time. GDP data, for example, is released once a quarter and is frequently revised. In fact, economists expect the data to be revised.

The economic cycle is also an imprecise construct. In math or in physics, a cycle is strictly defined by tome and once the down trend of the cycle begins, that trend continues until its scheduled conclusion. In the economic cycle, there is no definite time between tops and bottoms.

There is also no defined magnitude of the size of peaks and troughs. And, it is not predetermined. The cycle can start and stop and behave in unexpected and unpredictable ways.

Despite its approximate nature, the business cycle is still useful for traders. The fact is that some sectors or industries do better at different times. And, the leadership in the market varies from sector to sector. This gives rise to the sector rotation strategy.

The chart below is typical of the ones used to define the strategy. It shows a business cycle and imposes an expected pattern of which sectors will do best in each part of the cycle.

business cycle chart

Source: StockCharts.com

The next chart presents the same type of information in a different and perhaps more understandable style.

business cycle chart

Source: StockCharts.com

What’s important is the idea that different sectors lead at different times and traders could potentially benefit that.

Dynamic Markets Require a Dynamic Strategy

The charts above give the impression that there will be a time when traders should sell health care, for example, and but consumer staples. When consumer staples are sold, the investor would rotate into utilities.

This is, of course, a theory. In practice, the market does not behave so predictably. That means many traders have developed dynamic strategies to decide when to rotate between sectors. We will build out a simple example of a strategy.

While there are a number if data sources that a trader could use, we will look to FinViz.com, a free site that has a screening tool that could be used to trade this strategy. The rules for the strategy are shown in the next chart and we will explain the concepts in the next section.

Finviz chart

Source: FinViz.com

Specific Strategy Rules

We have elected to consider only exchange traded funds (ETFs). An ETF holds dozens or hundreds of individual stocks. That reduces the volatility of the holdings. A trader could also use individual stocks instead but that would lead to higher expected volatility.

Volatility in general terms is the size of the expected price swings. Higher volatility could mean larger potential rewards and higher potential risks. Each trader should consider their risk tolerance in deciding exactly how much volatility they are willing to accept.

Next, we required minimum trading volume of 1 million shares. That is a liquidity filter to make it easy to trade. By requiring a relatively large amount of volume, we are doing all we can ensure that we can trade at a reasonable cost under any market conditions.

We then get to the heart of the rules. We require the ETFs to be up in the last six months and we require the closing price to be above the 200 day moving average. Then, we look for short term pull backs within that up trend, using RSI below 40 to identify that.

This is our complete set of rules that will determine which ETFs to trade.

Recently 5 ETFs passed this screen. Their ticker symbols are shown in the next figure.

stock picks

Source: FinViz.com

These ETFs could be bought. Remember, this is just one approach and we are searching for the best performers. You could tailor this to your risk preference.

Now, the decision on when to sell must be considered. One approach is simply to run this screen once a month. If an ETF is no longer among the top five, it could be sold and replaced with the top performing ETFs that are not currently in the portfolio.

There is no reason that one month holding periods need to be used. Research completed in the academic community has shown that this approach could be successful with any time period from about one month to one year. Rerunning the screen every three months is an approach that could be considered.

This is a relatively simple sector rotation strategy and there are a number of ways that it could be refined. However, all will have risks since the top performing ETFs in a bull market can, and often do, reverse sharply. This means volatility will still be high, even with ETFs.

However, in the long run, strategies like this one that are based on momentum have been shown to beat the market. That means this could be a useful strategy in a retirement account which has a long term outlook. Sector rotation could be a valuable addition to long term, and even short term traders.