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A confluence of economic data suggests that we’re entering into a full-blown bear market. Between trends like employment, inflation, fuel prices, and other measures, the data is overall looking very negative.
With the chances of a bear market rising – as stocks close in on a 20 percent drop from all-time highs, there are a few counter trends potentially lining up that could also send stocks higher.
For example, a rising put to call ratio shows that traders are bearish and have been for some time.
But there’s been a spike in this activity in recent days. Historically, that means that traders tend to brace for a further market decline just before it surprises to the upside.
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The Nasdaq high-to-low ratio also shows that most stocks have already fallen as a whole.
Typically, when a high percentage of stocks are hitting 52-week lows, that can also signify a bottom in markets. Such a ratio occurred in late 2008, although it wasn’t until early 2009 when markets began to rise in earnest.
Other indicators also show that there’s a high level of pessimism in markets. It doesn’t mean markets are set to rally yet, but that we could be closing in on the end of the latest selloff, with one more drop likely in the months ahead.